What Polls Show as Trump Rallies in New Mexico, Virginia in Final Week

With just days before the election, former President Donald Trump is rallying in New Mexico and Virginia, seeking to close gaps in states where he trails in recent polls.
In New Mexico, Trump’s Halloween rally in Albuquerque marks his second visit since 2019—when his campaign departed with an unpaid city bill exceeding $200,000. The rally comes as polls indicate a firm Democratic lead in the state, making Trump’s visit a surprising last-minute move.
A recent Albuquerque Journal poll by Research & Polling Inc., conducted from October 10 to 18, underscores Trump’s uphill battle in New Mexico. Among likely voters, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads by 9 points, holding 50 percent to Trump’s 41 percent.
Daniel Garcia, spokesperson for the Democratic Party of New Mexico, dismissed Trump’s rally as futile. “Trump is wasting his time in our state, where polling shows New Mexicans are set to reject his MAGA extremism and divisive rhetoric yet again,” Garcia said.
Democrats have historically dominated New Mexico’s major counties, notably Bernalillo and Santa Fe, while Republicans maintain stronger bases in eastern and northwestern regions near Texas and the Four Corners area. Although New Mexico’s down-ballot races are competitive, poll watchers like Nate Silver and poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight forecast that Harris will secure the state’s five electoral votes.
Virginia presents a similar picture for Trump. Last week, he phoned into an early voting rally hosted by Governor Glenn Youngkin’s PAC in Chesterfield, hoping to rally GOP voters ahead of his November 2 appearance in Salem.
“November 5 is going to be the biggest, most important day in our country’s history,” Trump told Youngkin and rally-goers by phone. “We win Virginia, it’s over.”
While he and his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, have heavily campaigned in battleground states critical to victory—such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina—Trump insisted “Virginia is still in play.” Yet, polls tell another story.
A Washington Post/George Mason University poll conducted October 19-23 shows Harris leading Trump by six points in Virginia, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 43 percent. Once a GOP stronghold, Virginia has shifted blue in presidential contests since 2008, with Trump losing by five points in 2016 to Hillary Clinton and by over ten points in 2020 to Joe Biden.
Despite polling challenges, the Trump campaign maintains a determined focus on Virginia, with Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law and co-chair of the Republican National Committee, underscoring the importance of a win in the Old Dominion.
“He’s here because, let’s be real, we’re planning for a big red map on November 5, and Virginia is part of that picture,” she told rally attendees.
Trump last campaigned in Virginia on June 28 in Chesapeake, with a previous rally held on March 2 at the Greater Richmond Convention Center.
Harris, maintaining a solid lead in recent Virginia polling, has not held a rally in the state since securing the party’s nomination.